Would you mind sharing your thoughts about Trump's attack on Brazil? His government just announced a section 301 investigation on Brazil, beyond the 50% tariff. What is your hypothesis for this single out of Brazil?
Defining the possible outcomes has been a past time of mine, and I landed at about the same place you have. Consider the below permutations of democratic outcomes:
1. Democrats win 2026/28, the fever breaks, the US moves on (relatively) normally as a country.
While 1 and 4 seem most likely, it becomes clear that there are only two ultimate outcomes post 2028, as you succinctly stated.
In argument for 1, it is hard to see a Trump successor when he takes up so much oxygen in the room. I take this to mean that any Republican candidate will have a hard time winning over the voters. Combine with dropping approval ratings and policies most Americans are increasingly unhappy with, it seems that Democrats winning 26/28 is the most likely outcomes in a "clean" system.
For that reason, 4 is the next likeliest, followed by 2. There are many avenues Republicans can go towards increasing their electoral odds, and probably many more that I can't imagine. There's also the incentive to raise the stakes out of fear of backlash. “As one Polish politician put it in the lead-up to the 2023 general election following eight years of gradual shift towards electoral autocracy, ‘this election is about whether we go to jail or they go to jail’” (https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-orbanisation-of-america-hungarys-lessons-for-donald-trump/)
My own final observation: if I were an aspiring autocrat trying to install a totalitarian state, I would be greatly concerned about a degrading approval rating in the 40s so early in my attempt. I would also be concerned about losing control of the legislature (either by not passing enough legislation, defections, or losing a majority). Additionally, while I may have friends in the highest court, that court can only protect me from a fraction of the cases I am losing in the lower courts. These are things Mussolini, Orban, etc did not have to worry about when they began their final consolidation efforts.
Would you mind sharing your thoughts about Trump's attack on Brazil? His government just announced a section 301 investigation on Brazil, beyond the 50% tariff. What is your hypothesis for this single out of Brazil?
Thank you very much.
Defining the possible outcomes has been a past time of mine, and I landed at about the same place you have. Consider the below permutations of democratic outcomes:
1. Democrats win 2026/28, the fever breaks, the US moves on (relatively) normally as a country.
2. Democrats win 2026 (House or Senate), Republicans win 2028, horrors persist indefinitely.
3. Democrats lose 2026, win 2028, horrors persist in the interim but move on normally as a country afterwards.
4. Democrats lose 2026/28, horrors persist indefinitely.
While 1 and 4 seem most likely, it becomes clear that there are only two ultimate outcomes post 2028, as you succinctly stated.
In argument for 1, it is hard to see a Trump successor when he takes up so much oxygen in the room. I take this to mean that any Republican candidate will have a hard time winning over the voters. Combine with dropping approval ratings and policies most Americans are increasingly unhappy with, it seems that Democrats winning 26/28 is the most likely outcomes in a "clean" system.
For that reason, 4 is the next likeliest, followed by 2. There are many avenues Republicans can go towards increasing their electoral odds, and probably many more that I can't imagine. There's also the incentive to raise the stakes out of fear of backlash. “As one Polish politician put it in the lead-up to the 2023 general election following eight years of gradual shift towards electoral autocracy, ‘this election is about whether we go to jail or they go to jail’” (https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-orbanisation-of-america-hungarys-lessons-for-donald-trump/)
My own final observation: if I were an aspiring autocrat trying to install a totalitarian state, I would be greatly concerned about a degrading approval rating in the 40s so early in my attempt. I would also be concerned about losing control of the legislature (either by not passing enough legislation, defections, or losing a majority). Additionally, while I may have friends in the highest court, that court can only protect me from a fraction of the cases I am losing in the lower courts. These are things Mussolini, Orban, etc did not have to worry about when they began their final consolidation efforts.